FAWS comments on 2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey - Less Wrong

65 Post author: Yvain 03 November 2012 11:00PM

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Comment author: ArthurDenture 04 November 2012 02:38:34PM *  18 points [-]

Took the survey.

I hope this question isn't used the way I worry it will be used:

CFAR Question 3

A certain town is served by two hospitals. In the larger hospital, about 45 babies are born each day. In the smaller one, about 15 babies are born each day. Although the overall proportion of girls is about 50%, the actual proportion at either hospital may be greater or less on any day. At the end of a year, which hospital will have the greater number of days on which more than 60% of the babies born were girls?

This question was easy for me to answer by pattern-matching to the Law of Small Numbers, as outlined in Thinking, Fast and Slow. If I hadn't read that, it's hard to say whether I would have reasoned it out correctly. So if many respondents answer this question correctly, I hope that the survey authors don't claim evidence that LW readers are better at statistical reasoning -- it'd be more accurate to say that LW readers are more likely to have seen this very particular question before.

(I could, naturally, be assuming too much about the intents of the survey authors.)

Comment author: MixedNuts 04 November 2012 04:26:57PM *  5 points [-]

Intuitive answer:

Picture a horizontal line and points scattered around it. If there are many points, the line will be dark and there'll be a cloud around it. If there are few points, you'll get a vague shape and it won't be easy to tell where the line originally was.

Rigorous answer:

print [
len(filter(lambda x: x > 0.6 *per_day,
[
sum([ randint(0,1) for birth in range(0, per_day) ])
for day in range(0, 365)
]))
for per_day in (15, 45)
]

Thoughtful answer: Why would I bother thinking? Fetch me an apple.

Edit: For copulation's sake, whose kneecaps do I have to break to make Markdown leave my indentation the Christian Underworld alone, and who wrote those filthy blatant lies masquerading as comment formatting help?

Comment author: FAWS 04 November 2012 05:31:47PM *  2 points [-]

Edit: For copulation's sake, whose kneecaps do I have to break to make Markdown leave my indentation the Christian Underworld alone, and who wrote those filthy blatant lies masquerading as comment formatting help?

does
prefacing with 4 extra spaces work?

EDIT: Apparently not. Very likely a bug then.

Comment author: [deleted] 04 November 2012 07:17:13PM 2 points [-]

The usual kludge is to replace spaces with full stops.

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