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simplicio comments on 2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey - Less Wrong
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That's actually probably my favorite single question: when I first took the survey I went 'universe: dunno, maybe 60%, Milky Way: eh, 30%.....wait a second aren't there more than 2 galaxies‽'
I was pretty sure there were about 100 billion galaxies so I just divided by that factor.
That assumes aliens arising in each galaxy is an independent event when conditioning on your uncertainty.
...why yes, yes it does. Dur.