army1987 comments on 2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey - Less Wrong

65 Post author: Yvain 03 November 2012 11:00PM

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Comment author: ArthurDenture 04 November 2012 02:38:34PM *  18 points [-]

Took the survey.

I hope this question isn't used the way I worry it will be used:

CFAR Question 3

A certain town is served by two hospitals. In the larger hospital, about 45 babies are born each day. In the smaller one, about 15 babies are born each day. Although the overall proportion of girls is about 50%, the actual proportion at either hospital may be greater or less on any day. At the end of a year, which hospital will have the greater number of days on which more than 60% of the babies born were girls?

This question was easy for me to answer by pattern-matching to the Law of Small Numbers, as outlined in Thinking, Fast and Slow. If I hadn't read that, it's hard to say whether I would have reasoned it out correctly. So if many respondents answer this question correctly, I hope that the survey authors don't claim evidence that LW readers are better at statistical reasoning -- it'd be more accurate to say that LW readers are more likely to have seen this very particular question before.

(I could, naturally, be assuming too much about the intents of the survey authors.)

Comment author: [deleted] 05 November 2012 12:43:25AM 5 points [-]

it'd be more accurate to say that LW readers are more likely to have seen this very particular question before.

BTW, I had seen the CFAR Question 1 before.

Comment author: [deleted] 05 November 2012 03:17:49PM 2 points [-]

On the other hand, I hadn't seen it before, but still got it correct.