TheOtherDave comments on 2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey - Less Wrong
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A rule of thumb I find very helpful when evaluating statements is to ask myself what I would expect to experience differently if it were true or false, and to ask myself what I would endorse doing differently if I knew it were true or false. Frequently, what this makes me realize is that I don't actually understand the statement... which is particularly embarrassing when I'm the one who said it.