AnthonyC comments on 2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey - Less Wrong
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Took the survey.
I hope this question isn't used the way I worry it will be used:
This question was easy for me to answer by pattern-matching to the Law of Small Numbers, as outlined in Thinking, Fast and Slow. If I hadn't read that, it's hard to say whether I would have reasoned it out correctly. So if many respondents answer this question correctly, I hope that the survey authors don't claim evidence that LW readers are better at statistical reasoning -- it'd be more accurate to say that LW readers are more likely to have seen this very particular question before.
(I could, naturally, be assuming too much about the intents of the survey authors.)
I have not read Thinking Fast and Slow, but the answer to this follows directly from binomial probability distributions, which (at least in NY) were part of the 11th grade math curriculum as of 2004. That doesn't mean most people will notice the connection, but technically they've been exposed to all the necessary information to solve it.