RichardKennaway comments on Voting is like donating thousands of dollars to charity - Less Wrong

32 Post author: Academian 05 November 2012 01:02AM

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Tags: instrumental voting rationality

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Comment author: CCC 05 November 2012 08:05:57AM 4 points [-]

So I found this paper by Gelman, King, and Boscodarin (1998), where they simulate the electoral college using models fit to previous US elections, and find that the probability of a decisive vote came out between 1/(3 million) and 1/(100 million) for voters in most states in most elections, with most states lying very close to 1/(10 million).

So... what you're telling me here is that, in America, different people's votes count for different amounts. If I have Tom, whose vote has a one-in-a-hundred-million chance of affecting the election; and John, who lives in a different state and whose vote has a one-in-three-million chance of affecting the election, then won't the average politician completely ignore Tom's state in order to concentrate more on influencing John's vote?

This seems backwards.

It also implies that Tom's state is going to end up with any messy industries that have to go somewhere, but that no voter wants in their back yard.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 05 November 2012 08:50:39AM 3 points [-]

If I have Tom, whose vote has a one-in-a-hundred-million chance of affecting the election; and John, who lives in a different state and whose vote has a one-in-three-million chance of affecting the election, then won't the average politician completely ignore Tom's state in order to concentrate more on influencing John's vote?

Diminishing returns come into play. There's only so much effort it's worth putting into the most important state before the next most important becomes marginally equal.

It also implies that Tom's state is going to end up with any messy industries that have to go somewhere, but that no voter wants in their back yard.

That does look armchair-likely. Does it happen?

Comment author: CCC 05 November 2012 07:21:52PM 0 points [-]

Diminishing returns come into play. There's only so much effort it's worth putting into the most important state before the next most important becomes marginally equal.

...true. One should probably expect thirty-three times as much effort going to John's state as to Tom's state.

That does look armchair-likely. Does it happen?

I don't know, I live on the wrong side of the Atlantic to have personal experience.

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