Dreaded_Anomaly comments on Voting is like donating thousands of dollars to charity - Less Wrong

32 Post author: Academian 05 November 2012 01:02AM

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Comment author: Dreaded_Anomaly 05 November 2012 05:09:43PM *  1 point [-]

A slight math error:

(90%-30%)*1/(3.5 million)*($7 trillion) = $1.2 million

Here you left the 30% chance of being wrong from the previous example, but if you have a 90% chance of being right, you only have a 10% chance of being wrong. The actual expected dollar value is $1.6 million, which is actually a little better for your argument.