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Unnamed comments on Voting is like donating thousands of dollars to charity - Less Wrong
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Gelman, Silver, and Edlin have a more recent paper looking at the 2008 election, which estimated that California voters had a 1 in 1 billion chance of being decisive and that 1 in 10 million was the maximum probability of being decisive (for voters in the four swingiest states).
I think the polls are closer in 2012 than 2008.