handoflixue comments on Voting is like donating thousands of dollars to charity - Less Wrong

32 Post author: Academian 05 November 2012 01:02AM

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Comment author: Eugine_Nier 05 November 2012 03:33:25AM 4 points [-]

Roughly half of the population is misinformed about which alternative is objectively better. In that case, how do I justify a belief that I have a greater than 50% chance of being right, when everyone else has access to the same information?

Well, you can replace "which alternative is objectively better" with any other belief on which opinions differ and the same argument applies.

Comment author: ricketson 05 November 2012 05:01:19AM 0 points [-]

"any other belief"

This invites us to look at why beliefs differ. First we have to acknowledge that we are talking about differences between people with comparable levels of expertise, so this isn't the same as the disagreements that exist between experts and novices.

For elections, I think we can say that people disagree in large part because the situation is incredibly complicated. It it hard to know how government policies will affect human welfare, and it is hard to know how elected officials will shape government policy.

The only interesting factor that I can think of is differences in our scope of altruism -- one voter may feel altruistic towards their city, while another focuses on the nation, and a third focuses on all of humanity.

Comment author: handoflixue 06 November 2012 12:42:50AM 2 points [-]

"First we have to acknowledge that we are talking about differences between people with comparable levels of expertise"

The assertion that the vast majority of voters have done a sizeable amount of research, rather than simply voting "along party lines" or "like mom always did" or "because dad was overcontrolling and I'm not going to support HIS party" strikes me as the sort of assertion that would require quite a lot of evidence.

One can reasonably conclude that in politics, as with math, the "average person" is ignorant and their opinion is not based on any sort of expertise.

Comment author: ricketson 14 February 2013 06:08:55AM 0 points [-]

"One can reasonably conclude that in politics, as with math, the "average person" is ignorant and their opinion is not based on any sort of expertise."

Even if you limit the population to those who are well informed, that population is still rather evenly split and so his points still hold.

Comment author: handoflixue 14 February 2013 09:31:12PM -1 points [-]

Even if you limit the population to those who are well informed, that population is still rather evenly split

On some issues, probably. On others, you have the well-informed, educated, cares-about-facts types versus the religious fanatics who want to push their religious agenda, or their personal agenda, or support pork-barrel funding of pet projects, or want to waste extravagant amounts on feel-good charity that accomplishes nothing in the end.

I don't think either political party in the US has a monopoly on educated - it's easier for me to demonize and strawman Republicans since I was raised Democratic. Apologies if my examples thus seem biased in that direction.

So, yes, sometimes, it's clear my opponent has a genuine, reasoned stance. Sometimes, it's equally clear that they don't. It's important to be aware that sometimes the opposing side doesn't have any rational objections because they're wrong.