I agree with you that #2 is the least likely of these, and I offer the following statistic which, if cited at the outset, might have saved us a good deal of argument :-). In 1998, California went Democratic by about 51:48. In 2012, California went Democratic by about 59:39.

I assume you meant #2 is most likely? And you're right; I should have pointed that out initially (even though it was before the election, I could have used 2008 figures).