Eugine_Nier comments on Does My Vote Matter? - Less Wrong

19 Post author: orthonormal 05 November 2012 01:23AM

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Comment author: Eugine_Nier 07 November 2012 04:55:07AM 2 points [-]

Shouldn't it be the binomial distribution where n=number of voters, k=n/2, and p=.5, meaning the probability of you being the deciding vote is (.5^n)*(n choose n/2).

Yes, and Sqrt(n) (times a small constant) is a good approximation to the above for large n. See Stirling's formula.