Vaniver comments on Checklist of Rationality Habits - Less Wrong
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Comments (186)
This is awesome. I might remove the examples, print down the rest of the list, and read it every morning when I get up and every night before going to sleep. OTOH I have a few quibbles with some examples:
For some reason my brain is more comfortable working with numbers that with visualizations, instead. That can be bad for signalling: a few years ago there was a terrorist attack in London which affected IIRC about 300 people; my mother told me “you should call [your friend who's there] and ask him if he's all right”, and I answered “there are 10 million people in London, so the probability that he was involved is about 1 in 30,000, which is less than the probability that he would die naturally in...”; my mother called me heartless before I even finished the sentence.
There's a huge difference: someone living in Silicon Valley on $70K + x and considering whether to stay there or move to Santa Barbara and earn x would be used to living on $70K + x; whereas someone living in Santa Barbara on x and considering whether to move to Silicon Valley and earn x + $70K or stay there would be used to living on x. This would affect how much each of them would enjoy a given amount of money. Also, the former would already have a social circle in Silicon Valley, and the latter wouldn't.
Huh, no. If they are likely to respond badly, I want to believe they are likely to respond badly. If they aren't likely to respond badly, I want to believe they aren't likely to respond badly. What is true is already so, owning it up doesn't make it worse. The solution to that problem is to think twice and re-read the email and think about ways to make it less likely for it to be interpreted in an unintended way before hitting Send.
Your math is right but your mother has the right interpretation of the situation. If your friend is dead, calling him does neither of you any good! This is a 29,999 out of 30,000 chance to earn brownie points.
A different approach might be to do the math on how likely it is that someone the friend knows was involved in the incident. Or maybe just call to discuss the possible repercussions and the probable overreactions that the local government will have.
However, for most of my own friends, if I did call them in exactly such a situation, they'd tell me almost exactly what army1987 said to their mother. Unless they happened to be dead or lost a friend to the event or something.