Decius comments on Checklist of Rationality Habits - Less Wrong

117 Post author: AnnaSalamon 07 November 2012 09:19PM

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Comment author: jooyous 08 November 2012 03:33:50AM 1 point [-]

At some point I started feeling like my bf is more interested in telling me things than having a conversation with me. So I started trying to flag the instances where he did it and the instances where he didn't, and it kinda felt like it matched my feeling since I had several more examples of one than the other. But I didn't document then carefully or anything, so how do I know I'm not falling into the confirmation bias trap? Or is this just the wrong way to handle something that started out as a ... feeling?

Comment author: Decius 08 November 2012 07:00:53AM 2 points [-]

To break confirmation bias, you need an objective log. Write down every time you recognize a confirming event, as well as every time you recognize an even which is nonconfirming. Then, estimate the likelihood that you would recognize and write down a confirming event, and the likelihood that you would recognize and write down a nonconforming event. Use your surprise that a nonconfirming event just occurred, as well as your surprise that you noticed it and made a note of it to form that estimate.

If you find yourself more surprised that you made a not of a nonconfirming event than that it happened, it probably happens much more often than you note it.