Decius comments on Cryonics as Charity - Less Wrong

3 Post author: jkaufman 10 November 2012 02:21PM

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Comment author: Decius 15 November 2012 04:52:20PM 0 points [-]

Consider the world in which some event magically safely placed every human being into suspension for a period of three years; 2009-2012; then removed them from suspension today. Maintenance was performed magically to the same degree it is in the real world, and whatever other incidental magic is performed as needed.

Does this world have a larger economy than it did in 2009? Is it larger than the real world equivalent?

The sorites game ends as soon as there are not enough willing buyers to buy all of the bonds that are being used as liquid assets. Those bonds would have been sold anyway- to the person who now wishes to buy them, if nobody else.

And on each margin, fewer bonds will be offered and fewer ventures launched, the point your 'significantly' glosses over entirely.

I guess that's part of 'demand creates its own supply' then; in both cases the number of people who want to buy bonds exceeds the number of bonds being offered; but if more of the buyers want to use bonds as liquid assets more bonds will be offered? The market doesn't clear in either case- there are still buyers who want to buy bonds, but there are no more bonds offered. If there were more bonds being offered, then the people who would buy them on the secondary market would buy them on the primary market; there cannot be buyers with unmet demand on the secondary market and sellers with unsold bonds on the primary market.

Comment author: gwern 15 November 2012 05:29:20PM *  -1 points [-]

Does this world have a larger economy than it did in 2009? Is it larger than the real world equivalent?

Your hypothetical is irrelevant and would be irrelevant even if everyone in the world signed up for cryonics.

I guess that's part of 'demand creates its own supply' then

No, it's just an observation that not every possible clearing market of bonds will maximize growth... See previous points about utility and discounting etc.