"Even if you could rule out man-made and weather-related causes for some UFOs, that wouldn't imply that they were caused by an extra-terrestrial civilization either."
I agree. But in the cases of grey beings emerging from UFOs we can at least conclude that grey beings can occupy UFOs, if we trust primary evidence. This would be a massive discovery in itself, so why don't we hear about it? We don't have to conclude they come from outer space - who knows, they maybe live underground. Lets not speculate on that as we have plenty of interesting observations to delve into already - little gray men emerging from airborn thingies is HUGE in itself.
"So what is it that you think you know about these "Aliens"?"
It's not that I know anything about aliens. It's that more earthly explanations are completely implausible in many cases.
"That said, I don't think you can rule out weather and human craft."
In which cases? Just all cases, a priory? Or did you go through all previous sightings and came to that conclusion in every one case? Maybe others did the study for you, so you could provide a reference?
little gray men emerging from airborn thingies is HUGE in itself.
Um, no. A short guy in a grey suit stepping off a helicopter is a little grey man emerging from an airborn thingy.
Or did you go through all previous sightings and came to that conclusion in every one case?
No. I don't see the point in digging through all the reports, when the reports I have heard about have been so underwhelming. I was skipping around, watching bits and pieces of the video you linked, until Manfred pointed this out:
...The geiger counter reading is reported as "10
Recently I've been struck with a belief in Aliens being present on this Earth. It happened after I watched this documenary (and subsequently several others). My feeling of belief is not particular interesting in itself - I could be lunatic or otherwise psychological dysfunctional. What I'm interested in knowing is to what extend other people, who consider themselves rationalists, feel belief in the existence of aliens on this earth, after watching this documentary. Is anyone willing to try and watch it and then report back?
Another question arising in this matter is how to treat evidence of extraordinary things. Should one require 'extraordinary evidence for extraordinary claims'? I somehow feel that this notion is misguided - it discriminates evidence prior to observation. That is not the right time to start discriminating. At most we should ascribe a prior probability of zero and then do some Bayesian updating to get a posterior. Hmm, if no one has seen a black swan and some bayesian thinking person then sees a black swan a) in the distance or b) up front, what will his a posterior probability of the existence of black swans then be?