TimS comments on Why is Mencius Moldbug so popular on Less Wrong? [Answer: He's not.] - Less Wrong

9 Post author: arborealhominid 16 November 2012 06:37PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (259)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: TimS 21 November 2012 03:08:11AM *  0 points [-]

From the article:

Imagine a square matrix in which our n commodities are rows and columns. How much real information is there in this matrix? Obviously, the oil-oil exchange rate is always 1, and the oil-wheat and wheat-oil rates are the same thing. So half our boxes, plus n, become blank. But this is by no means enough blanking. Because we note an interesting fact - if this entire marketplace clears, it cannot be possible to construct a cycle of exchanges through which one ends up with more wheat, or oil, or silver, or anything, than one started with. This is obviously a desirable trade, and yet in a cleared market there are no desirable trades.

This statement is misleading economics - markets work because individuals preferences do not match the general consensus. Because of comparative advantage, there's no particular reason to expect individual valuations to ever exactly match the market rates.

Later, Moldbug notes people want accumulate money, but rejects the explanation that it is valued because it is the medium of exchange. It is confusing when the monetary object is actually of some value (i.e. gold or silver), but no one uses the gold standard any more. There's really no reason to treat fiat money as a good. And all of the discussion assumes that treating money as a good makes sense.

Finally, Moldbug's discussion of the transition from gold-standard to fiat money without discussing private currency at all seems like more selective history. All selective history is worthless - it's like throwing out all the data from an experiment that does not agree with your hypothesis.

Comment author: Kal 23 November 2012 03:08:26PM *  1 point [-]

My responses, based on my current understanding, such as it is.

  1. Note the qualifier "marketplace clears". In the process of clearing, a market undergoes price-discovery and any arbitrage opportunities are taken and thus removed.

  2. In a pre-monetary, fledgling economy, there could be two or more commodities which simultaneously serve as mediums of exchange. What makes one of them the choice as Money is that the economy grows to a point where there is significant surplus wealth to be stored and one of the commodities wins that competition. The win may have nothing to do with any unique attribute - randomness could easily tilt the competition a certain way. In an economy where people have generated and thus wish to save their surplus wealth, one dominant money will arise (because of the winner take all effects described). And it will be one of the mediums of exchange from amongst which the store of surplus value will be chosen. Fiat money is a good, in economic terms. It exchanges for other goods. It is currently Money cos it is used by people to store their surplus.

  3. The purpose of the article is not a detailed historical account. It is an explanation of sound monetary economics. It's purpose and its value is in the deduction. The full history of monetary evolution is not germane to the deduction.

Comment author: TimS 03 December 2012 04:40:20PM 0 points [-]

Note the qualifier "marketplace clears". In the process of clearing, a market undergoes price-discovery and any arbitrage opportunities are taken and thus removed.

"Marketplace clears" doesn't imply that everyone agrees that the price = the value. McDonald's has cheeseburgers on sale for ~$1. That's probably the market clearing price. I still don't think a cheeseburger creates $1 of value for me.

If Moldbug makes a basic econ error (by conflating value and price), then there's no reason to trust any other part of his "return to first principles of economics."

Fiat money is a good, in economic terms. It exchanges for other goods.

"exchanges for other goods" is a bizarre definition of good. The hoarding-of-physical-objects metaphor is misleading.