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Khoth comments on Prediction: Autism Rate will Stop Increasing - Less Wrong
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The risk that if you lose the bet, you don't pay up. It's relatively high here because a single-purpose account has no reputation to care about.
Especially since he immediately stopped commenting (last comment November 2012), and there's no way to track him down to a real name, so if one had made a bet with him and won, how could one collect?