"How We're Predicting AI — or Failing to"

lukeprog

The new paper by Stuart Armstrong (FHI) and Kaj Sotala (SI) has now been published (PDF) as part of the Beyond AI conference proceedings. Some of these results were previously discussed here. The original predictions data are available here.

Abstract:

This paper will look at the various predictions that have been made about AI and propose decomposition schemas for analysing them. It will propose a variety of theoretical tools for analysing, judging and improving these predictions. Focusing speciﬁcally on timeline predictions (dates given by which we should expect the creation of AI), it will show that there are strong theoretical grounds to expect predictions to be quite poor in this area. Using a database of 95 AI timeline predictions, it will show that these expectations are born out in practice: expert predictions contradict each other considerably, and are indistinguishable from non-expert predictions and past failed predictions. Predictions that AI lie 15 to 25 years in the future are the most common, from experts and non-experts alike.

Abstract:

This paper will look at the various predictions that have been made about AI and propose decomposition schemas for analysing them. It will propose a variety of theoretical tools for analysing, judging and improving these predictions. Focusing speciﬁcally on timeline predictions (dates given by which we should expect the creation of AI), it will show that there are strong theoretical grounds to expect predictions to be quite poor in this area. Using a database of 95 AI timeline predictions, it will show that these expectations are born out in practice: expert predictions contradict each other considerably, and are indistinguishable from non-expert predictions and past failed predictions. Predictions that AI lie 15 to 25 years in the future are the most common, from experts and non-experts alike.

Re the graph quality: I'm REALLY sorry and I have to apologize to Stuart for the poor quality of images - it's kind of my fault... When I typesetted the final version of the proceedings, they were in A5 format, but on A4 page. We sent it to the printing company and they ran it through some program that cropped the pages to A5. Alas, this program also terribly compressed the images and I didn't check it carefully before letting them print it. So this is it... Once more sorry about that.

The only thing I can do is to fix it in this electronic version - will be done asap.

Anyway, thanks Stuart for your great talk!

Best wishes

Jan Romportl

Well, at least it's partially fixed... (Actually this reminds me that, as ElGalambo pointed out earlier, I should update the Wikipedia Maes-Garreau article.)

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"How We're Predicting AI — or Failing to"

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"How We're Predicting AI — or Failing to"

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