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rompi comments on "How We're Predicting AI — or Failing to" - Less Wrong
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Comments (18)
It's a good paper overall, and I'm glad to see it's been published - especially the Maes-Garreau material! (I wonder what Kevin Kelly made of our results? His reaction would've been neat to mention.)
But reading it all in one place, I think one part seems pretty weak: the criticizing of the 'expert' predictions. It seems to me like there ought to be more rigorous forms of assessment, and I wonder about possible explanations for the clumping at 20+ years: the full median-estimate graph seems to show a consistent expert trend post-1970s to put AI at x-2050 (I can't read the dates because the graphs are so illegible, what the heck?) and also many recent predictions. Perhaps there really is a forming expert consensus and the clump is due to the topic gaining a great deal of attention recently, and then the non-expert predictions are just taking their cue from the experts (as one would hope!)
Hi
Re the graph quality: I'm REALLY sorry and I have to apologize to Stuart for the poor quality of images - it's kind of my fault... When I typesetted the final version of the proceedings, they were in A5 format, but on A4 page. We sent it to the printing company and they ran it through some program that cropped the pages to A5. Alas, this program also terribly compressed the images and I didn't check it carefully before letting them print it. So this is it... Once more sorry about that.
The only thing I can do is to fix it in this electronic version - will be done asap.
Anyway, thanks Stuart for your great talk!
Best wishes
Jan Romportl
Well, at least it's partially fixed... (Actually this reminds me that, as ElGalambo pointed out earlier, I should update the Wikipedia Maes-Garreau article.)