Kaj_Sotala comments on "How We're Predicting AI — or Failing to" - Less Wrong
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I'm actually thinking that the "non-experts were no better than experts" bit is maybe a little misleading, as I remember seeing a lot of the non-experts base their predictions on what experts had been saying.
Really? That wasn't my recollection. But you probably saw the data more than I did, so I'll bear that in mind in future!