"How We're Predicting AI — or Failing to"

lukeprog

The new paper by Stuart Armstrong (FHI) and Kaj Sotala (SI) has now been published (PDF) as part of the Beyond AI conference proceedings. Some of these results were previously discussed here. The original predictions data are available here.

Abstract:

This paper will look at the various predictions that have been made about AI and propose decomposition schemas for analysing them. It will propose a variety of theoretical tools for analysing, judging and improving these predictions. Focusing speciﬁcally on timeline predictions (dates given by which we should expect the creation of AI), it will show that there are strong theoretical grounds to expect predictions to be quite poor in this area. Using a database of 95 AI timeline predictions, it will show that these expectations are born out in practice: expert predictions contradict each other considerably, and are indistinguishable from non-expert predictions and past failed predictions. Predictions that AI lie 15 to 25 years in the future are the most common, from experts and non-experts alike.

Abstract:

This paper will look at the various predictions that have been made about AI and propose decomposition schemas for analysing them. It will propose a variety of theoretical tools for analysing, judging and improving these predictions. Focusing speciﬁcally on timeline predictions (dates given by which we should expect the creation of AI), it will show that there are strong theoretical grounds to expect predictions to be quite poor in this area. Using a database of 95 AI timeline predictions, it will show that these expectations are born out in practice: expert predictions contradict each other considerably, and are indistinguishable from non-expert predictions and past failed predictions. Predictions that AI lie 15 to 25 years in the future are the most common, from experts and non-experts alike.

Is there something that it is like to be Siri? Still, Siri is a tool and potentially a powerful one. But I feel no need to be afraid of Siri as Siri any more than I am afraid of nuclear weapons in themselves. What frightens me is how people might misuse them. Not the tools themselves. Focusing on the tools then does not address the root issue. Which is human nature and what social structures we have in place to make sure some clown doesn't build a nuke in his basement.

Did ELIZA present the "dangers and promises" of AI? Weizenbaum's secretary thought so. She thought it passed the Turing test. Did it? Will future AI tools really be indistinguishable from living beings? I doubt it. I think it will always be apparent to people that they are dealing with a software tool that makes it easier for them to do something.

If behaviorism has been rejected as an explanation for consciousness how can one appeal to behaviorism as a model for future AI?

"so what evidence for this claimed proportion is there?"

Oh, I was just being flippant. It is a law of the universe that if there is a joke to be made I must at least try for it. ;)

"I don't see how this is a corollary. "

Yeah, also not serious. I meant only to mock the eternal claim of fusion proponents that it is always "just around the corner". I remember as a child reading breathless articles in Popular Science in the 70's about the immanent breakthroughs in nuclear fusion "any day now". Just like AI researchers of that day. And 40 years later little has changed.

I do not mistake Google translate for a conscious entity. Neither does anyone else. I can see no reason to believe that will change in the next 40 years.

"Examples include tabtletop designs that can be made by hobbyists."

Well now, that was cool. But yeah, no net increase in energy. Still, good for him.

Is there something that it is like to be Siri?

I'm not sure what you mean by this question. Is this a variant of what it is like to be a bat? There's a decent argument that such questions don't make sense. But this doesn't matter much: Whether some AI has qualia or not doesn't change any of the external behavior, than for most purposes like existential risk it doesn't matter.

I doubt it. I think it will always be apparent to people that they are dealing with a software tool that makes it easier for

This and most of the rest of your post are asserti... (read more)

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"How We're Predicting AI — or Failing to"

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"How We're Predicting AI — or Failing to"

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