timtyler comments on Survey Results - Less Wrong

48 Post author: Yvain 12 May 2009 10:09PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (210)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: timtyler 12 May 2009 10:41:07PM 3 points [-]

Re: Probability of an average person cryonically frozen today being successfully revived: 22.3, 10, 26.2.

An enormous estimate, IMO - close to that given by the salesmen(!):

http://www.alcor.org/Library/html/WillCryonicsWork.html

Comment author: timtyler 12 May 2009 10:45:30PM 2 points [-]

From that document:

"If all my best case figures are used, P(now) from the Warren Equation is 0.15, or a bit better than one chance in seven. This is my most optimistic scenario. The pessimistic scenario puts P at 0.0023, or less than one chance in 400."