ciphergoth comments on Survey Results - Less Wrong

48 Post author: Yvain 12 May 2009 10:09PM

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Comment author: SoullessAutomaton 13 May 2009 09:59:27PM *  2 points [-]

IMO most of the strong arguments for libertarianism (as a set of policies) are consequentialist ones by economists.

Do any of these economists have a consistently successful track record of prediction? Remember, this is a field where opinions of serious economists on the recent stimulus package ranged from "it won't have any effect" to "it will make things worse" to "it doesn't go far enough".

Economists talking about large-scale political structures should be assumed to lack credibility until proven otherwise via actual, consistent predictive results.

EDIT: Requesting clarification on why this comment was voted down to -2. Robin has posted repeatedly on many experts' allergies to predictions. Have I made a mistake in my conclusions here?

Comment author: ciphergoth 14 May 2009 07:57:02AM 1 point [-]

Listen to Robin Hanson discuss this phenomenon on EconTalk. Starts with half-hour monologue by presenter, but I find the presenter quite interesting too.