Z_M_Davis comments on Survey Results - Less Wrong

48 Post author: Yvain 12 May 2009 10:09PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (210)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: JGWeissman 14 May 2009 07:29:57PM 3 points [-]

I mean, suppose someone flips a coin that you know to be slightly biased towards heads. Would you be willing to bet a thousand dollars that the coin comes up heads?

Well, that is what Bayesian decision theory would suggest you do, provided your utility function is linear with respect to money.

But, to illustrate the problem with acting as though you were 100% certain in your best theory, suppose I offer you the following bet. I will roll an ordinary 6 sided dice, and if the result is between 1 and 4 (inclusively), I will pay you $10. But if the result is 5 or 6, you will pay me $100. So you see that getting a result between 1 and 4 is more likely than getting a 5 or a 6, so you treat it as certain, so you accept my bet which you assign an expected value of $10. But really, the expected value is (2/3)$10 - (1/3)$100 = -$80/3. On average, you lose about $27 with this bet.

The problem here is that, by acting as though you are 100% sure, you give no weight to the potential costs of being wrong (including the opportunity of cost of the potential benefits of a different decision).

Comment author: Z_M_Davis 14 May 2009 10:16:29PM 1 point [-]

Well, that is what Bayesian decision theory would suggest you do, provided your utility function is linear with respect to money.

Right; I wasn't thinking. Your example is better.