JoshuaZ comments on How minimal is our intelligence? - Less Wrong

55 Post author: Douglas_Reay 25 November 2012 11:34PM

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Comment author: Salemicus 21 November 2012 07:18:12PM *  1 point [-]

Number theory might have progressed faster... we might better understand the “Great Filter”

Isn’t this kind of thing archetypal of knowledge that in no way contributes to human welfare?

In many historical cases, book burning has been a precursor to killing people.

Perhaps, but note that this wasn’t a precursor to killing people; people were being widely killed regardless. But the modern attention is not on the rape, murder, pillage, etc... it’s on the book-burning. Why the distorted values?

a high status of academics is arguably quite a good thing from a consequentialist perspective

Alvin Roth is no doubt a bright guy, but the idea that he has done more lasting good for humanity than, say, Sam Walton, is absurd. You’re right that Bill Gates has made a huge impact – but his lasting good was achieved by selling computer software, not through the mostly foolish experimentation done by his foundation. Sure, some academics have done some good (although you wildly overstate it) but you have to consider the opportunity cost. The high status of academics causes us to get more academic research than otherwise, but it also encourages our best and brightest to waste their lives in the study of arcana. Can anyone seriously doubt that, on the margin, we are oversupplied with academics, and undersupplied with entrepreneurs and businessmen generally?

Comment author: JoshuaZ 21 November 2012 09:14:54PM 12 points [-]

Follow up reply in a separate comment since I didn't notice this part of the remark the first time through (and it is substantial enough that it should probably not just be included as an edit):

... we might better understand the “Great Filter”

Isn’t this kind of thing archetypal of knowledge that in no way contributes to human welfare?

If this falls into that category then the archetypes of knowledge that doesn't contribute to human welfare is massively out of whack. Figuring out how much of the Great Filter is in front of us or behind us is extremely important. If most of it is behind us, we have a lot less worry. If most of the Great Filter is in front of us, then existential risk is a severe danger to humanity as a whole. Moreover, if it is in front of us, then it most likely some form of technology and caused by some sort of technological change (since natural disasters aren't common enough to wipe out every civilization that gets off the ground). Since we're just beginning to travel into space, it is likely that if there is heavy Filtration in front of us, it isn't very far ahead but is in the next few centuries.

If there is heavy Filtration in front of us, then it is vitally important that we figure out what that Filter is and what we can do to avert it, if anything. This could be the difference between the destruction of humanity and humanity spreading to the stars. If there are any contributions that contribute to the welfare of humanity, those which involve our existence as a whole should be high up on the list.