CronoDAS comments on A Parable On Obsolete Ideologies - Less Wrong
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On the other hand, a number of polytheistic religions were pretty much eliminated by monotheistic religions.
I assume that any religion that's more than a few centuries old is a very resilient set of memes (so are some younger religions, of course, but it's harder to predict with them) and isn't going away any time soon, unless, of course, there's a singularity or something extraordinary in the way of new religious ideas comes along.
Indeed; when that same Roman Empire became officially Christian, they eventually did end "paganism" within its borders, although it took them a long time to get serious about it.