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Vaniver comments on LW Women- Minimizing the Inferential Distance - Less Wrong
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Er... if p(anthropogenic global warning is occurring | all publicly available evidence) is 85%, I'm not sure what I want is 85% of the people to tell me anthropogenic global warning is occurring and 15% of the people to tell me it's not.
Why not?
Of course, the best proportion would be 100% of people telling me that p(thewarming)=85%; but if we limit the outside opinions to simple yes/no statements, then having 85% telling 'yes' and 15% telling 'no' seems to be far more informative than 100% of people telling 'yes' - as that would lead me to very wrongly assume that p(thewarming) is the same as p(2+2=4).
Why?