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Athrelon comments on LW Women- Minimizing the Inferential Distance - Less Wrong
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Ah, but this was less the case at the time the poll was made (the community has been growing in the meantime) and it was also not clear that this would be a Main as opposed to Discussion post. So that has to be factored into the probabilities.
In order to estimate the base rate, I looked at the first page of recent posts, which goes back to October 2011.
I suspect a similar thing is true of Discussion, but the reference class would need to be more precise. (i.e., non-link, established user author, longer than X words).