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gwern comments on LW Women- Minimizing the Inferential Distance - Less Wrong
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Comiket posted some interesting stats in http://www.comiket.co.jp/info-a/WhatIsEng080528.pdf so getting them might be as hard as asking?
Hmm. But Comiket is far from representative in this field. I'm erring on the side of: Asking a japanese convention host known for their erotic doujin content about their sales and stats, and them actually sending them to you, is going to be a bit more complicated than just and email saying "Hey, could you show me your stats and detailed sales records for the past few years?" (NTM they might not even know English)
Of course (unsurprisingly in retrospect), my "they're pretty hard to get" belief is cached and wasn't updated in quite a while, so I was probably overconfident in that statement.
Comiket is the largest and most mainstream, is it not? If you pick another convention, that raises serious issues of whether their specialty affects things and is not a nationally representative sample. (It might be like going to Reitaisai's organizers, asking for stats on Touhou stuff, and exclaiming: "the first year, Touhou only made up 70% of the sales, but the percentage just kept increasing and now it's verging on 100%! My god: think of how many shrine maidens must be getting raped every year, all without any reporting!")
Also, presumably someone in Comiket knows English or else that PDF couldn't've been written.
I burst out laughing while reading this. Thankfully, my office colleagues didn't ask.
Yes, Comiket is the most mainstream, but perhaps for this reason (countersignaling involved?) I've read various comments that point towards: Don't go there if you're looking for good ero-doujin. Cross-referencing online database of circles with which-ones-were-there for various cons might remedy / clarify / answer all of this, but that sounds like way more work than I usually end up actually doing.
First and obvious thing to do, however, would be to check whether someone else has already done part of the work on something like this that I could go steal data from.
You're just trying to diagnose a trend, right? I think a bias like that would only be important if you were trying to estimate the absolute amount or if the bias itself were changing over time so the early figures were more/less biased toward ero-doujin; also, the bias sounds like it would be to decrease any increases in ero-doujin ratios so the increases would be underestimates: if you wound up seeing a statistically significant trend upwards anyway, then you wouldn't have to worry about that one-way bias.
Well, don't look at me! My hafu data, while occasionally involving porn stories (mostly yaoi, for some reason...), keeps me busy enough and I haven't even learned the fancier statistics that will be involved like capture-recapture.
Hurr durr. You're right. I was looking at this completely the wrong way.
I think there's still an impact as Comiket appears to be proportionally more intimidating to be at the more extreme or niche the stuff you're into (whether a circle or reader/buyer), but not in the data-twisting sense I was thinking of.
Haha, wasn't planning to. I already know a few places where I could start looking.