Jandila comments on Overconfident Pessimism - Less Wrong

25 Post author: lukeprog 24 November 2012 12:47AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 24 November 2012 04:24:58PM 7 points [-]

I don't think Eliezer meant to say that breakthrough technologies always seem 50 years off or impossible until they are invented.

I don't think JoshuaZ meant to say Eliezer meant to say that. It seems more like he just meant that the list feels cherry-picked; that the examples given seem to be chosen for their suitability to the argument rather than because they form a compelling signal when compared against other relevant data points.