mfb comments on Overconfident Pessimism - Less Wrong

25 Post author: lukeprog 24 November 2012 12:47AM

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Comment author: devas 24 November 2012 10:02:28AM 2 points [-]

Now I'm wondering how this kind of bias operates outside of science, and specifically with what confidence we can expect insane things to be disregarded.

More in detail, I'm wondering how long homeopathy can survive while all experts can attest that it's not useful. The case of Miracle Mineral Supplement which Eliezer mentioned recently, seems to show that people will stop doing absurd things, when it is shown exactly how absurd they are. The question is, how long does it take for this to happen? After all, people still read horoscopes!

Comment author: mfb 24 November 2012 07:45:01PM 0 points [-]

I don't think this will die soon, similar to many other obscure types of "medicine". Proper medical treatments can fail, and in that case many are looking for alternatives. Add some "$person was treated with §method and $symptom went away!"-"confirmations", and you have a market for that.

Comment author: CCC 26 November 2012 08:15:41AM 4 points [-]

If a person (a) is poorly, (b) receives treatment intended to make him better, and (c) gets better, then no power of reasoning known to medical science can convince him that it may not have been the treatment that restored his health.

-- Sir Peter Medawar, "The Art of the Soluble"

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