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CCC comments on Overconfident Pessimism - Less Wrong
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Comments (38)
Not directly related to the topic, but since you're speaking of PredictionBook, there is a question I would like to ask : it seems from http://predictionbook.com/predictions that the PredictionBook crowd is mostly calibrated, on average, except on the extrema (100%/0%). How does that match with the "people are broadly overconfident" studies ? The two dataset seem contradictory to me. I notice I'm confused.
I could pop explanations like "people on prediction book are not representatives of people in general" or "the kind of predictions made on prediction book isn't the same" but they sound more like rationalizations (popping an explanation with poor data backing it to avoid admitting confusion), so I don't accept them.
Does anyone here has better answers (or data back to my "guesses") on that data contradiction ?
Hmmm. It seems likely that some people will be overconfident, and some will be underconfident.
I would guess that a new visitor to the site will more likely be overconfident than underconfident; that implies that the old visitors, those who have practiced a bit, may be slightly more likely to be underconfident than overconfident.