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shminux comments on LW Women- Crowdsourced research on Cognitive biases and gender - Less Wrong
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How well do you know that's 80%? If you would now commit to writing down the next 100 results of such guesses, how confident (what p value) would you be that between 70 and 90 times it's a woman?
Why?
You might be remembering the times you are correct more clearly than the times you are wrong.
I thought about it, but I think I remember being surprised better than being right. But who knows, I did not keep count.