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TrE comments on 2012 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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Comments (640)
Were they excluded from the probabilities questions?
It was stated that they should give the obvious answer and that surveys that didn't follow the rules would be thrown out... but maybe 50% isn't as obvious as 99.99% of the population thinks it is.
Is there any reason the prompt for the question shouldn't have explicitly stated "(The obvious answer is the correctly formatted value equivalent to p=0.5 or 50%)"?
My working theory is that they were trolling.
Either way, should we or shouldn't we have trusted the rest of their answers to be statistically reliable?
I see no reason to throw out their responses. They appear to just not be familiar with the terminology. To someone that does not know that "fair coin" is defined as having .5 probability for each side, they might envision it as a real physical coin that doesn't have two heads.