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Alejandro1 comments on 2012 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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Note also that in the last two surveys the mean and median answers were approximately correct, whereas this time even the first quartile answer was too late by almost a decade. So it's not just a matter of overconfidence -- there also was a systematic error. Note that Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances was published posthumously when Bayes would have been 62; if people estimated the year it was published and assumed that he had been approximately in his thirties (as I did), that would explain half of the systematic bias.
I had a vaguely right idea for the year of publication, and didn't know it was posthumous, but assumed that it was published in his middle-to-old age and so got the question right.