gwern comments on 2012 Survey Results - Less Wrong

80 Post author: Yvain 07 December 2012 09:04PM

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Comment author: shminux 29 November 2012 07:50:13PM *  2 points [-]

Are people who understand quantum mechanics are more likely to believe in Many Worlds? We perform a t-test, checking whether one's probability of the MWI being true depends on whether or not one can solve the Schrodinger Equation. People who could solve the equation had on average a 54.3% probability of MWI, compared to 51.3% in those who could not. The p-value is 0.26; there is a 26% probability this occurs by chance. Therefore, we fail to establish that people's probability of MWI varies with understanding of quantum mechanics.

Just wanted to point out a few fallacies in the above:

  • "can solve the Schrodinger Equation" means nothing or less without specifying the problem you are solving. The two simplest problems taught in a modern physics course, the free particle and a one-dimensional infinite square well are hardly comparable with, say, calculating the MRI parameters.

  • self-reporting "can solve the Schrodinger Equation" does not mean one actually can.

  • even then, "can solve the Schrodinger Equation" does not mean "understand quantum mechanics", as it does not require one to understand measurement and decoherence, which is what motivates MWI in the first place.

  • there are many versions of MWI, from literal ("the Universe split into two or more every time something happens") to Platonic ("Mathematical Universe").

Basically, I hope that you realize that this is a prime example of "garbage in, garbage out". I suppose it's a good thing that there was no correlation, otherwise one might draw some unwarranted conclusions from this.

Comment author: gwern 29 November 2012 11:55:06PM 7 points [-]

If the correlation had come out the other way, you'd be jumping on it as proof of your thesis that LWers favor MWI because they are sheepishly following Eliezer. In what universe where they are indeed sheepishly and ignorantly following him does a question like that show nothing whatsoever?

Comment author: shminux 30 November 2012 12:05:44AM 2 points [-]

If the correlation had come out the other way, you'd be jumping on it as proof of your thesis that LWers favor MWI because they are sheepishly following Eliezer.

Probably (though not a proof, just one piece of evidence). I suspect that "garbage in" is the reason why we don't see it, but I do not have a convincing argument either way, short of asking Eliezer to post an insincere message "I no longer believe in MWI", take the survey soon after, then have him retract the retraction. This would, however, be rather damaging to his credibility in general.