That wasn't at all what I had in mind, though Eliezer's generally high level of intelligence and meticulousness makes MWI seem a little more likely to me.

No,my strongest general priors in play are that it's likely that there are different degrees of understanding the Schrodinger Equation, that people might kid themselves about how well they understand it, and that there's more than one take on MWI. My prior for there's more to understanding MWI than the Schrodinger equation is a little weaker, but not much.