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Tripitaka comments on 2012 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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In the fair coin questions, there were two people answering 49.9, one 49.9999, one 49.999999, and one 51. :-/
Here is a paper which shows that natural coin tosses are not fair- with a 51:49 bias of the side thats "up" at the beginning. Maybe ask for the probability on an indealized coin toss next year? edit: fixed the markup
Certain tossing techniques can bias the results much more than that, as described in Probability Theory by Jaynes. But the survey did ask about a “fair coin” (emphasis added).
(For the
[text](url)link syntax to work, you need the full URL, i.e. including the http:// bit at the start: http://comptop.stanford.edu/preprints/heads.pdf)