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army1987 comments on 2012 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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Here is a paper which shows that natural coin tosses are not fair- with a 51:49 bias of the side thats "up" at the beginning. Maybe ask for the probability on an indealized coin toss next year? edit: fixed the markup
Certain tossing techniques can bias the results much more than that, as described in Probability Theory by Jaynes. But the survey did ask about a “fair coin” (emphasis added).