VincentYu comments on 2012 Survey Results - Less Wrong

80 Post author: Yvain 07 December 2012 09:04PM

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Comment author: William_Quixote 01 December 2012 04:52:52PM 7 points [-]

Pandemic (bioengineered): 272, 23% Environmental collapse: 171, 14.5% Unfriendly AI: 160, 13.5% Nuclear war: 155, 13.1% Economic/Political collapse: 137, 11.6% Pandemic (natural): 99, 8.4% Nanotech: 49, 4.1% Asteroid: 43, 3.6%

This is one question where the results really suprised me. Combining natural and engendered pandemics, almost a third of respondents picked it as the top near term X risk which was almost twice as many as the next highest risk. I wonder if the x risk discussions we tend to have may be somewhat misallocated.

Comment author: VincentYu 01 December 2012 05:55:19PM 8 points [-]

Note that the question on the survey was not about existential risks:

Type of Global Catastrophic Risk

Which disaster do you think is most likely to wipe out greater than 90% of humanity before the year 2100?

I answered bio-engineered pandemics, but would have answered differently for x-risks.