Vladimir_Nesov comments on 2012 Survey Results - Less Wrong

80 Post author: Yvain 07 December 2012 09:04PM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 02 December 2012 02:05:54AM *  3 points [-]

If you think figuring out stuff is instant, you underestimate the number of steps your brain does in order to figure things out.

(I was commenting on a skill/habit that might be useful in the situations where you don't/can't make the effort of explicitly reasoning about things. Don't fight the hypothetical.)

Comment author: Epiphany 02 December 2012 02:09:37AM 1 point [-]

(I was commenting on a skill that might be useful in the situations where you don't/can't make the effort of explicitly reasoning about things. Don't fight the hypothetical.)

Is it your position that there is a thinking skill that is actually accurate for figuring stuff out without thinking about it?

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 02 December 2012 02:29:41AM *  2 points [-]

I expect you can improve accuracy in the sense of improving calibration, by reducing estimated precision, avoiding unwarranted overconfidence, even when you are not considering questions in detail, if your intuitive estimation has an overconfidence problem, which seems to be common (more annoying in the form of an "The solution is S!" for some promptly confabulated arbitrary S, when quantifying uncertainty isn't even on the agenda).

(I feel the language of there being "positions" has epistemically unhealthy connotations of encouraging status quo bias with respect to beliefs, although it's clear what you mean.)