RobertLumley comments on 2012 Survey Results - Less Wrong

80 Post author: Yvain 07 December 2012 09:04PM

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Comment author: RobertLumley 02 December 2012 06:39:18AM 2 points [-]

Three points referred to the number of surveys taken, which I didn't bother to look up, but I believe is three.

10% and 100% referred to the time span over which these data points referred to, ie. three years. Basically, I might be OK with you making a prediction for the next three months (still probably not) but extrapolating for three years based on three years of data seems a bit much to me.

Comment author: Epiphany 02 December 2012 07:41:34PM -1 points [-]

Oh I see. The problem here is that "if the trend continues" is not a prediction. "I predict the trend will continue" would be a prediction. Please read more carefully the next time. You confused me quite a bit.

Comment author: RobertLumley 02 December 2012 08:16:39PM 5 points [-]

If you're not making a prediction, then it's about as helpful as saying "If the moon crashes into North America next year, LW communities will largely cease to exist."