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army1987 comments on 2012 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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This is one question where the results really suprised me. Combining natural and engendered pandemics, almost a third of respondents picked it as the top near term X risk which was almost twice as many as the next highest risk. I wonder if the x risk discussions we tend to have may be somewhat misallocated.
Note that x-risks as defined by that questions are not the same as x-risks as defined by Bostrom. In principle, a catastrophe might kill 95% of the population but humanity could later recover and colonize the galaxy, or a different type of catastrophe might only kill 5% of the population but permanently prevent humans from creating extraterrestrial settlements, thereby setting a ceiling to economic growth forever.
So, if extraterrestrial settlements are unlikely to be ever created regardless of any catastrophe, the point is moot.
I think that the likes of Bostrom would consider anything that would prevent us from establishing extraterrestrial settlements to be a catastrophe itself, even though it's ‘business as usual’.
Then the 'catastrophe' could be quite possibly intrinsic in the laws of physics and the structure of the solar system.
Many are.