army1987 comments on 2012 Survey Results - Less Wrong

80 Post author: Yvain 07 December 2012 09:04PM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 02 December 2012 01:57:44AM *  7 points [-]

you're actually taking the time to distinguish between 10 different amounts of confidence (10%, 20%, 30%, etc), and then making ten more tiny distinctions (30%, 31%, 32% for instance)... at least that's the way that I do it

The straightforward interpretation of your words evaluates as a falsity, as you can't estimate informal beliefs to within 1%.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 December 2012 12:06:57PM 4 points [-]

I'd put it more in terms of decibels of log-odds than percentages of probability. Telling 98% from 99% (i.e. +17 dB from +20 dB) sounds easier to me than telling 50% from 56% (i.e. 0 dB from +1 dB).