Vaniver comments on 2012 Survey Results - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (640)
IQ Trend Analysis:
The self-reported IQ results on these surveys have been, to use Yvain's wording, "ridiculed" because they'd mean that the average LessWronger is gifted. Various other questions were added to the survey this time which gives us things to check against, and the results of these other questions have made the IQ figures more believable.
Summary:
LessWrong has lost IQ points on the self-reported scores every year for a total of 7.18 IQ points in 3.7 years or about 2 points per year. If LessWrong began with 145.88 IQ points in May 2009, then LessWrong has lost over half of it's giftedness (using IQ 132 as the definition, explained below).
The self-reported figures for each year:
IQ on 03/12/2009: 145.88
IQ on 00/00/2010: Unknown*
IQ on 12/05/2011: 140
IQ on 11/29/2012: 138.7
IQ points lost each year:
2.94 IQ point drop for 2010 (Estimated*)
2.94 IQ point drop for 2011 (Estimated*)
1.30 IQ point drop for 2012
Analysis:
Average IQ points lost per year: 1.94
Total IQ points lost: 7.18 in 3.7 years
Total IQ points LessWrong had above the gifted line: 13.88 (145.88 - 132*)
Percent less giftedness on the last survey result: 52% (7.18 / 13.88)
Footnotes:
* Unknown 2010 figures: There was no 2010 survey. The first line of the 2011 survey proposition mentions that.
* Estimated IQ point drops for 2010 and 2011: I divided the 2011 IQ drop by 2 and distributed it across 10/11.
* IQ 132 significance: IQ 132 is the top 2% (This may vary a little bit from one IQ test to another) which would qualify one as gifted by every IQ-based definition I know of. It is also (roughly) Mensa's entrance requirement (depending on the test) though Mensa does not dictate the legal or psychologist's definitions of giftedness. They are a club, not a developmental psychology authority.
This comment is relevant; we have a dataset of users who both took the Raven's test and self-reported IQ. The means of the group that did both was rather close to the means of the group that did each separately, but the correlation between the tests was low at .2. If you looked just at responders with positive karma, the correlation increased to a more respectable .45; if you looked just responders without positive karma, the correlation was -.11. This was a small fraction of responders as a whole, and the average IQ is already tremendously inflated by nonresponse. (If we assumed that, on average, people who didn't self-report an IQ were IQ 100, then the LW average would be only 112!)