CarlShulman comments on 2012 Survey Results - Less Wrong

80 Post author: Yvain 07 December 2012 09:04PM

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Comment author: V_V 03 December 2012 10:00:22PM -1 points [-]

someone's capacity and habits to re-compute a problem's answer, using the algorithmic mind, rather than accept the intuitive default answer that their autonomous mind spits out.

I don't think you could really apply any 'algorithmic' method to that question (other than looking it up, but that would be cheating). It was a test on how much confidence you put in your heuristics. (BTW, It seems that I've underestimated mine, or I've been lucky, since I've got the date off by one year but estimated my confidence at 50% IIRC). Still, it was a valuable test, since most of human reasoning is necessarily heuristic.

most people in the general public don't know Bayes' theorem

Really? What probability do you assign to that statement being true? :D

I'm under the impression that Bayes' theorem is included in the high school math programs of most developed countries, and I'm certain it is included in any science and engineering college program.

Comment author: CarlShulman 31 December 2012 02:27:12AM 2 points [-]

most people in the general public don't know Bayes' theorem

Really? What probability do you assign to that statement being true? :D

There are national and international surveys of quantitative literacy in adults. The U.S. does reasonably well in these, but in general the level of knowledge is appalling to math teachers. See this pdf (page 118 of the pdf, the in-text page number is "Section III, 93") for the quantitative literacy questions, and the percentage of the general population attaining each level of skill. less than a fifth of the population can handle basic arithmetic operations to perform tasks like this:

One task in this level, with a difficulty value of 332, asks the reader to estimate, based on information in a news article, how many miles per day a driver covered in a sled-dog race. The respondent must know that to calculate a “ per day” rate requires the use of division. A more difficult task (355) requires the reader to select from two unit price labels to estimate the cost per ounce of creamy peanut butter. To perform this task successfully, readers may have to draw some information from prior knowledge.

People who haven't learned and retained basic arithmetic are not going to have a grasp of Bayes' theorem.

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