MugaSofer comments on 2012 Survey Results - Less Wrong

80 Post author: Yvain 07 December 2012 09:04PM

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Comment author: V_V 03 December 2012 10:00:22PM -1 points [-]

someone's capacity and habits to re-compute a problem's answer, using the algorithmic mind, rather than accept the intuitive default answer that their autonomous mind spits out.

I don't think you could really apply any 'algorithmic' method to that question (other than looking it up, but that would be cheating). It was a test on how much confidence you put in your heuristics. (BTW, It seems that I've underestimated mine, or I've been lucky, since I've got the date off by one year but estimated my confidence at 50% IIRC). Still, it was a valuable test, since most of human reasoning is necessarily heuristic.

most people in the general public don't know Bayes' theorem

Really? What probability do you assign to that statement being true? :D

I'm under the impression that Bayes' theorem is included in the high school math programs of most developed countries, and I'm certain it is included in any science and engineering college program.

Comment author: MugaSofer 09 January 2013 12:56:55PM 0 points [-]

most people in the general public don't know Bayes' theorem

Really? What probability do you assign to that statement being true? :D

I'm under the impression that Bayes' theorem is included in the high school math programs of most developed countries, and I'm certain it is included in any science and engineering college program.

I'm pretty sure Ireland doesn't have it on our curriculum, not sure how typical we are.