army1987 comments on 2012 Survey Results - Less Wrong

80 Post author: Yvain 07 December 2012 09:04PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Article Navigation

Comments (640)
Tags: survey meta community

Comments (640)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: [deleted] 10 January 2013 01:56:22PM *  3 points [-]

What more could you want? A theorem proving that any optimal decision theory must necessarily use Bayesian updating?

There already is such a theorem. From Wikipedia:

A decision-theoretic justification of the use of Bayesian inference was given by Abraham Wald, who proved that every Bayesian procedure is admissible. Conversely, every admissible statistical procedure is either a Bayesian procedure or a limit of Bayesian procedures.

Comment author: pengvado 10 January 2013 11:50:31PM 2 points [-]

As far as I can tell from wikipedia's description of admissibility, it makes the same assumptions as CDT: That the outcome depends only on your action and the state of the environment, and not on any other properties of your algorithm. This assumption fails in multi-player games.

So your quote actually means: If you're going to use CDT then Bayes is the optimal way to derive your probabilities.

Powered by Reddit Powered by Reddit