gwern comments on 2012 Survey Results - Less Wrong

80 Post author: Yvain 07 December 2012 09:04PM

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Comment author: gwern 22 January 2013 04:02:23AM 0 points [-]

A question arose on #lesswrong as to whether female LWers might be more likely to find LW through MoR than not. There is an imbalance in MoR referrals by gender, but it's not sufficiently extreme to hit significance in the limited survey dataset (need moar women):

R> lw <- read.csv("2012.csv")
R> lwm <- subset(lw, as.character(lw$Gender) == "M (cisgender)")
R> lwf <- subset(lw, as.character(lw$Gender) == "F (cisgender)")
R> summary(lwm$HPMOR)
" " "No" "Started it but haven't finished"
78 171 140
"Yes, all of it"
542
R> summary(lwf$HPMOR)
" " "No" "Started it but haven't finished"
6 18 20
"Yes, all of it"
49
R> 18 / (49+18)
[1] 0.2687
R> 171 / (542+171)
[1] 0.2398
R> # so, very similar percentages don't read MoR
R> nrow(subset(lwf, as.character(lwf$Referrals)=="Referred by Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality"))
[1] 29
R> nrow(subset(lwm, as.character(lwm$Referrals)=="Referred by Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality"))
[1] 206
R> c(29/93, 177/838)
[1] 0.3118 0.2112
R> # 10% difference? investigate with a chi-squared test
R>
R> N <- as.table(rbind(c(93, 29), c(838, 177)))
R> dimnames(N) <- list(morReferral=c("yes", "no"), gender=c("M", "F"))
R> chisq.test(N, simulate.p.value = TRUE, B = 10000000)
Pearson's Chi-squared test with simulated p-value (based on 1e+07 replicates)
data: N
X-squared = 2.943, df = NA, p-value = 0.1048
Comment author: Kawoomba 22 January 2013 07:05:37AM *  -1 points [-]

Doesn't need to hit an arbitrary (if historically established) 0.05 to be significant. 0.1048 still means a (EDIT:) higher probability that you've found something than not.

(Thanks for the correction.)

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 22 January 2013 07:11:09AM 5 points [-]