gwern comments on Open Thread, December 1-15, 2012 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: OpenThreadGuy 01 December 2012 05:00AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (177)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: advancedatheist 02 December 2012 03:24:53AM 14 points [-]

You might get a different perspective on the present when you reach your 50's, as I have. I used Amazon's book-previewing service to read parts of W. Patrick McCray's book, The Visioneers, and I realized that I could nearly have written that book myself because my life has intersected with the story he tells at several points. McCray focuses on Gerard K. O'Neill and Eric Drexler, and in my Amazon review I pointed out that after a generation, or nearly two in O'Neill's case, we can get the impression that their respective ideas don't work. No one has gotten any closer to becoming a space colonist since the 1970's, and we haven't seen the nanomachines Drexler promised us in the 1980's which can produce abundance and make us "immortal."

So I suspect you youngsters will probably have a similar letdown waiting for you when you reach your 40's and 50's, and realize that you'll wind up aging and dying like everyone else without having any technological miracles to rescue you.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Visioneers-Scientists-Nanotechnologies-Limitless/dp/0691139830/

Comment author: gwern 02 January 2013 07:27:05PM 0 points [-]

So I suspect you youngsters will probably have a similar letdown waiting for you when you reach your 40's and 50's, and realize that you'll wind up aging and dying like everyone else without having any technological miracles to rescue you.

So why don't we see an inverse Maes-Garreau effect, where predictors upon hitting their 40-50s are suddenly letdown and disenchanted and start making predictions for centuries out, rather than scores of years?

And what would you predict for the LW survey results? All 3 surveys ask for the age of the respondent, so there's plenty of data to correlate against, and we should be able to see any discouragement in the 40-50syo respondents.